Population agglomeration in Chinese cities: is it benefit or damage for the quality of economic development?

This paper explores the impact of population agglomeration on urban economic development quality in various cities of China. The results show that population agglomeration significantly contributes to the improvement of urban green total factor productivity by increasing population diversification, promoting knowledge spillovers, and reducing pollution emission intensity. Moreover, we find that population agglomeration in type II big cities and type I large cities significantly improves green total factor productivity, while the impact of population agglomeration in metropolises and mega-cities on green total factor productivity is not significant. On the one hand, type II big cities and type I large cities are in the period of rising economic development, the population has not yet reached saturation, and there is still a large demographic dividend space. On the other hand, excessive population agglomeration also brings about “urban diseases” such as population congestion and traffic congestion, especially in the metropolises and mega-cities. Finally, using data on producer services and its sub-sectors, we identify a more significant driving effect of high-end talent agglomeration on green total factor productivity.