Impact of China’s water pollution on agricultural economic growth: an empirical analysis based on a dynamic spatial panel lag model

The average annual growth rate of China’s waste emissions from 2007 to 2017 was 2.3%. The main pollutants in the wastewater are chemical oxygen demand, ammonia nitrogen, total ammonia, total phosphorus, and so on which pollute groundwater and destroy ecosystems. Poor water quality reduces the edible value of agricultural products and has an impact on human health. Based on the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2007 to 2017, this paper uses a dynamic spatial panel lag model to study the impact of China’s water pollution on agricultural economic growth. The results show that the impact of China’s water pollution on agricultural economic growth is significant. If the intensity of wastewater discharge is taken as an input factor in the process of agricultural production, the growth of agricultural economy tends to decline with the increase of water pollution. In the effect analysis, the short-term and long-term effects are significant. The absolute value of the long-term total effect is far greater than the short-term total effect, indicating that the inhibitory effect of water pollution on agricultural economic growth is more obvious. The cumulative effect of water pollution on agricultural economic growth continues to expand, resulting in more and more economic losses. The central and local governments should take various measures to reduce water pollution, guide the green development of agriculture, and increase farmers’ income to realize the rural revitalization plan.