Land use, land-use change, forestry, and agricultural activities in the clean development mechanism: Estimates of greenhouse gas offset potential

Activities involving land use, land-use change, forestry, and agriculture (LUCF) can help reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere by increasing biotic carbon storage, by decreasing GHG emissions, and by producing biomass as a substitute for fossil fuels. Potential activities include reducing rates of deforestation, increasing land devoted to forest plantations, regenerating secondary forest, agroforestry, improving the management of forests and agricultural areas; and producing energy crops. Policymakers debating the inclusion of a variety of LUCF activities in the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) of the Kyoto Protocol need to consider the magnitude of the carbon contribution these activities could make. Existing estimates of the cumulative GHG offset potential of LUCF activities often take a global or regional approach. In contrast, land-use decisions are usually made at the local level and depend on many factors including productive capacity of the land, financial considerations of the landowner, and environmental concerns. Estimates of GHG offset potential made at a local, or at most country, level that incorporate these factors may be lower, as well as more useful for policy analyses, than global or large regional estimates. While country-level estimates exist for forestry activities, similar estimates utilizing local information need to be generated for agricultural activities and biofuels, as well as for the cumulative potential of all LUCF activities in a particular location.