Estimation of biomass utilization potential in China and the impact on carbon peaking

China has abundant agricultural and forestry waste resources that are crucial sources of energy for substituting fossil fuels and achieving the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals. These resources play an essential role in reducing carbon dioxide emissions and promoting sustainable development. This paper presents an estimation of the number of biomass resources that can be used for energy in 2020 by using parameters such as the grass-to-grain ratio coefficient and excretion coefficient. Moreover, the potential for conversion of biomass resources into biomass energy is evaluated by using parameters such as lower heating value and gas production coefficient. Finally, based on the whole life cycle theory, the potential of biomass energy utilization to reduce carbon dioxide emissions and its impact on carbon peaking is calculated. It was found that the total amount of fossil fuels that can be replaced by biomass energy is 256 million tons of standard coal. Utilizing biomass energy can reduce carbon dioxide emissions by approximately 520 million tons, with a peak impact of 4–6% on carbon peaking. The research results presented in this article can provide valuable data to support the promotion of green transformation in various regions. The findings can serve as a useful reference for formulating localized biomass utilization plans and designing effective emission reduction policies.