Recurrence prediction in clear cell renal cell carcinoma using machine learning of quantitative nuclear features

The recurrence of non-metastatic renal cell carcinoma (RCC) may occur early or late after surgery. This study aimed to develop a recurrence prediction machine learning model based on quantitative nuclear morphologic features of clear cell RCC (ccRCC). We investigated 131 ccRCC patients who underwent nephrectomy (T1-3N0M0). Forty had recurrence within 5 years and 22 between 5 and 10 years; thirty-seven were recurrence-free during 5–10 years and 32 were for more than 10 years. We extracted nuclear features from regions of interest (ROIs) using a digital pathology technique and used them to train 5- and 10-year Support Vector Machine models for recurrence prediction. The models predicted recurrence at 5/10 years after surgery with accuracies of 86.4%/74.1% for each ROI and 100%/100% for each case, respectively. By combining the two models, the accuracy of the recurrence prediction within 5 years was 100%. However, recurrence between 5 and 10 years was correctly predicted for only 5 of the 12 test cases. The machine learning models showed good accuracy for recurrence prediction within 5 years after surgery and may be useful for the design of follow-up protocols and patient selection for adjuvant therapy.