Effect of air pollution on the prevalence of breast and cervical cancer in China: a panel data regression analysis

The association between the prevalence of breast and cervical cancer in Chinese women and air pollution is obscure. The study aims to analyze the correlation between air pollution and the prevalence of breast and cervical cancer, and whether the gross domestic product (GDP) has a modifying effect on the impact of air pollution on the prevalence of breast and cervical cancer. Extracting panel data from 31 provinces and cities between 2006 and 2020, we evaluated the association between breast and cervical cancer prevalence and pollutant emissions from 2006 to 2015 with two-way fixed-effect models. We also analyzed the interaction between GDP and pollutant emissions and further check the robustness of the moderating effect results using group regression from 2016 to 2020. Cluster robust standard errors were used to correct for the heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation. The coefficients of models show that the coefficients of logarithmic soot and dust emissions are estimated to be significantly positive, and the coefficients of their square terms are significantly negative. The robust results suggest that the relationship between soot and dust emissions and breast or cervical cancer prevalence is non-linear, from 2006 to 2015. In the analysis of particulate matter (PM) data in 2016–2020, the PM-GDP interaction term was also significantly negative, indicating that GDP growth weakened the effect of PM on the prevalence of breast cancer and cervical cancer. In provinces with higher GDP, the indirect effect of PM emissions concerning breast cancer is −0.396 while in provinces with lower GDP, it is about −0.215. The corresponding coefficient concerning cervical cancer is about −0.209 in provinces with higher GDP but not significant in provinces with lower GDP. Our results suggest that there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between the prevalence of breast cancer and cervical cancer and air pollutants from 2006 to 2015. GDP growth has a significant negative moderating effect on the impact of air pollutants on the prevalence of breast cancer and cervical cancer. PM emissions have a higher effect on the prevalence of breast and cervical cancer in provinces with higher GDP and a lower impact in provinces with lower GDP.