PCJ River Basins’ Water Availability Caused by Water Diversion Scenarios to Supply Metropolitan Areas of São Paulo

A dynamic systems simulation model of water resources was developed as a tool to help analyze alternatives to water resources management for the Piracicaba, Capivari and Jundiaí River Water Basins (RB-PCJ), and used to run six 50-year simulations from 2004 to 2054. The model estimates water supply and demand, as well as contamination load by several consumers. Six runs were performed using a constant mean precipitation value, changing water supply and demand and different volumes diverted from RB-PCJ to RB-Alto Tietê. For the Business as Usual scenario, the Sustainability Index went from 0.44 in 2004 to 0.20 by 2054. The Water Sustainability Index changed from 74% in 2004 to 131% by 2054. The Falkenmark Index changed from 1,403 m3 person − 1 year − 1 in 2004 to 734 m3 person − 1 year − 1 by 2054. We concluded that sanitation is one of the major problems for the PCJ River Basins.