A New Risk Assessment Model for Underground Mine Water Inrush Based on AHP and D–S Evidence Theory; [基于层次分析法和D-S证据理论的矿井突水风险评价模型]; [Ein neues Modell basierend auf einem analytischen Hierarchieprozess (AHP) und der Dempster-Shafer (D-S) Evidenztheorie für die Risikoeinschätzung untertägiger Wassereinbrüche]; [Un nuevo modelo de evaluación de riesgos para la irrupción de agua en minas subterráneas basado en la teoría de evidencia de AHP y D-S]

被引：0

作者：

Ruan Z. ^{[1
,2
]}

Li C. ^{[1
,3
]}

Wu A. ^{[1
,3
]}

Wang Y. ^{[1
,2
]}

机构：

[1] School of Civil and Resources Engineering, University of Science and Technology Beijing, Beijing

[2] State Key Laboratory of Coal Resources and Safe Mining, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou

[3] Key Laboratory of Ministry of Education of China for Efficient Mining and Safety of Metal Mines, University of Science and Technology Beijing, Beijing

来源：

Mine Water and the Environment | 2019年 / 38卷 / 3期

基金：

国家重点研发计划; 中国国家自然科学基金;

关键词：

Frame of discernment; Improved AHP; Improved D–S evidence theory; Manmade factors; Water-inrush integration decision-making model;

D O I：

10.1007/s10230-018-00575-0

中图分类号：

学科分类号：

摘要：

Effective risk assessment of underground water inrush is the prerequisite and basis for mine water hazard control and safe mining. An inrush risk assessment system was set up, based on a comprehensive analysis of the factors of mine water inrush risk and improved analytic hierarchy process (AHP). A new judgment matrix was constructed based on a scale of 1–9. The Dempster-Shafer (D–S) synthetic rule was improved on the basis of improved AHP; the frame of discernment proposed includes water-inrush, critical condition, and no water-inrush. A water-inrush integration decision-making model was thus established. Finally, using a typical underground mine in China, the new model was verified using this method. The probability of water inrush was 0.822, which is broadly in line with the actual situation, indicating that the model is feasible and applicable. © 2019, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.

引用

页码：488 / 496

页数：8