Exploring the impact of carbon emissions and co-macroeconomic determinants on China’s sustainable apple export

China is the foremost global consumer, producer, and exporter of fresh apples. In 2021, China produced roughly 44 million tons of apples and exported just over 1 million tons, a nearly 2% increase over the previous year. However, the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has had a detrimental impact on global trade and has led to a decrease in China’s agricultural exports. The present study aims to contribute to the existing body of literature by analyzing plausible macroeconomic determinants that might impact China’s apple exports. We used novel dynamic autoregressive distributed lag (DYARDL) simulations to model causal relationships among fundamental economic parameters. We made use of annual time series data from 1990 to 2020 from the World Bank and China’s national statistical bureau. We found that increases in apple orchard area, apple production, and trade openness had a positive impact on apple exports over both the short and long term. Conversely, decreases in the prices of exported apples, agrochemicals, and carbon emissions in the agricultural sector had a positive impact on the long-term and short-term exportation of apples. Finally, we note that pictographic illustrations from the DYARDL simulations provide corroborative evidence for our findings. Based on the study results, this study proposes that the adoption of technological advancements in apple orchards could potentially enhance apple production while simultaneously upholding environmental sustainability.