Forecast of Fossil Fuel Demand Based On Low Carbon Emissions from the Perspective of Energy Security

Fossil fuel is a key factor related to national energy security. Studying and judging the development trend of China’s future demand for fossil fuel and obtaining fossil fuel stably and adequately is of great significance to ensuring China’s political stability, normal operation of the national economy and national military security. Under the background of low carbon emissions in China, starting from the perspective of energy security, based on China’s carbon emissions and GDP data from 1997 to 2019, four methods, namely Ridge Regression, ARIMA Time Series Model, BP Neural Network and Linear Regression, are used to forecast and analyze the demand for six fossil fuels: raw coal, coke, crude oil, kerosene, diesel and natural gas, providing a reference for national energy policy formulation and fossil fuel security early warning.