Long-term water–energy–food security and resources sustainability: a case study of Ethiopia by 2030 and 2050

The development agenda of Ethiopia is to achieve a lower-middle-income country status by 2030. The agenda focuses on the development of the countries water, energy, and land-based resources to achieve 100% national water-energy-food security. Under such circumstances, understanding the demand and supply of resources is essential for sustainable development. This paper attempts to present the prospect of water-energy-food security of Ethiopia by 2030 and 2050 under three development scenarios: Business as Usual, Revised Vision 2030, and Agricultural Intensification Scenarios. The analysis was done using the Climate, Land, Energy and Water Systems modelling framework. The finding showed Ethiopia has adequate renewable energy and water resources to satisfy the growing demand for water supply, energy and food by 2050. The dominant hydropower energy capacity will be limited after 2040 and replaced by solar and other technologies. The target food production is constrained by limited land availability and productivity. Doubling of agricultural productivity is needed to effectively reduce the burden on land encroachment to sensitive ecosystems and reduce the dependency on imported food. It can be cautiously concluded that from resources supply–demand aspects, Ethiopia achieves middle-income country status by developing its untapped water and land resources. The need for large-scale investment and human resources capacity is recognized as limitations for large-scale water and energy infrastructure development. A policy-supported investment that is focused on doubling agricultural productivity is also essential to maintain food security and ecosystem integrity of the country.