Water availability and response of Tarbela Reservoir under the changing climate in the Upper Indus Basin, Pakistan

Agriculture is one of the major contributors to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Pakistan which relies on the availability of water. Hydropower contributes approximately 35% to the national electricity gid of Pakistan. Indus River is the main river of the Indus River System (IRS) which provides water for agriculture, hydropower and other purposes. The outputs of the Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM) are used to force the University of British Columbia Watershed Model (UBCWM) in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB), to investigate future water availability under the two IPCC emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Tarbela Reservoir which is the outlet of UIB is used as a measurement tool to assess water availability and response of the reservoir to climate change. The results show that maximum and minimum temperature are increasing in the future in comparison to the reference period. The largest increases in maximum temperature are projected for MAM (March–April–May) and JJA (June–July–August), with increases up to 2 °C in MAM and increases up to 6.4 °C in JJA under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively, in the future. Minimum temperature has maximum increase (6.7 °C) in DJF (December–January–February) during 2071–2100 under RCP8.5. Precipitation shows a 5.1% decrease in DJF during 2011–2040 under RCP4.5. The statistics about water availability suggest that there is consistent increase in most of the months in the future, however, under the RCP4.5, there is decline in the river flow during 2071–2100 as compared to the 2041–2070. The findings of this study show that most of the time there will be more water available but in some months, there may be water scarcity under the RCP4.5, however, proper management and optimal utilization can reduce the water scarcity.