Change in Temperature Extremes over India Under 1.5 °C and 2 °C Global Warming Targets

With rising global warming levels (GWL), the severity and frequency of temperature extremes have also increased across the globe. The rural and poor population of developing countries may be more vulnerable due to their limited reliable and relevant adaptation and mitigation capacities. In this context, we investigate the change in temperature extremes and associated area and population exposure over India under 1.5 °C and 2 °C world warmings. We also examined the benefits of 0.5 °C less warming on the area and population exposure over India. Temperature extremes were calculated from the daily maximum and minimum temperature data of 19 CMIP5 models for the RCP 8.5 scenario. We find that almost all of India is warming greater than the global average under both the warming levels. All the temperature extreme indices exhibit a pronounced increase under 2 °C global warming level (GWL) as compared to 1.5 °C GWL. We find a declining severity of extreme cold events and increasing in warm events. We find the largest warming in the western Himalayan region under both GWLs. A 0.5 °C reduction in GWL will not only limit the severity of temperature extremes but also reduce the population exposure by 44% and the area exposure by 50%. The study provides a reliable and inclusive assessment of projected GWL and the benefits of 0.5 °C less warming.