A Look-Ahead Strategy for Non-directed Donors in Kidney Paired Donation

While there is a growing need for kidney transplants to treat end-stage kidney disease, the supply of transplantable kidneys is in serious shortage. Kidney paired donation (KPD) programs serve as platforms for candidates with willing but incompatible donors to assess the possibility of exchanging donors, thus opening up new transplant opportunities for these candidates. In recent years, non-directed (or altruistic) donors (NDDs) have been incorporated into KPD programs beginning chains of transplants that benefit many candidates. In such programs, making optimal decisions in transplant exchange selection is of critical importance. With the aim of improving the selection of chains beginning with an NDD, this paper introduces a look-ahead multiple decision strategy to select chains that are easy to extend in the future. Simulation studies are adopted to assess performance of this strategy. Taking into account the extensibility of chains increases the number of realized transplants. © 2016, International Chinese Statistical Association.