A Longitudinal Multilevel Analysis of the Effects of Contraceptive Failures on Unintended Pregnancies among Women in Urban Nigeria

Unintended pregnancy is a global public health concern. However, the effect of contraceptive failure on unintended pregnancy remains unclear in Nigeria. We undertook a longitudinal analysis to examine the effect of contraceptive failure on unintended pregnancy among urban women in Nigeria. We used panel data from the Nigerian Urban Reproductive Health Initiative. The Measurement, Learning and Evaluation program conducted the surveys among a cohort of women aged 15–49 who were first interviewed at baseline in 2010/2011 and followed up at endline in 2014/2015. Analytic sample was 4140 women aged 15–49 who ever used contraceptives. We fitted three-level multilevel binary logistic regression models estimated with GLLAMM. The study established evidence that there is a significant effect of contraceptive failure on unintended pregnancy among urban women in Nigeria. The positive effect of between-person contraceptive failure indicates that respondents who experienced more contraceptive failure than the average in the sample had 5.26 times higher odds of unintended pregnancy (OR = 5.26; p-value < 0.001). Results also established a significant effect of within-person contraceptive failures among the respondents. Findings suggest there is evidence of a significant longitudinal effect of contraceptive failure on unintended pregnancy in urban Nigeria. Efforts to reduce unintended pregnancy must include interventions to address the problem of contraceptive failure among urban women in Nigeria.