Potential impact of climate change on the transmission of malaria in Northern Benin, West Africa

Malaria is one of the greatest public health challenges in sub-Saharan Africa. Benin records malaria as the leading cause of mortality and morbidity. This study aims to analyze the climate and examine the relationship between the incidence of malaria and climatic variables in Northern Benin. The precipitation concentration index (PCI), Pettit test, Mann Kendall (MK) test, and Sen’s slope method estimates were used to analyze the trends of temperature, rainfall, and rainfall intensity using monthly data from 1991 to 2021 at two meteorological stations and nine rain gauge stations in northern Benin. Pearson correlation tests, principal component analysis, and plots were computed to determine the relationship between malaria incidence and climatic variables over 2009–2021. Total precipitation and rainfall intensity are decreasing. The temperature showed a positive trend with an increase in the monthly and annual temperature. Monthly rainfall; minimal, maximal, and mean; relative humidity; and mean and maximal temperature have a significant positive correlation with malaria incidence. A range of 80–220 mm of precipitation, 25–35°C of temperature, 55–85% of relative humidity, and 1.6–2.7 m/s of wind speed is suitable for the transmission of malaria. Maximal temperature and relative humidity may have a large influence on how much malaria spreads in Northern Benin. These factors could help to develop a malaria early warning system in the study area.