Multi-criteria decision analysis for forest fire risk assessment by coupling AHP and GIS: method and case study

Fire is one of the main causes of environmental and ecosystem change. Geospatial data, derived from satellite images and surveying observations, are a useful tool in managing land use and land cover changes. In this paper, we present a multi-criteria-based geographical information system (GIS) for fire risk assessment and fire potential mapping in a peat swamp forest at Hua Sai district, Thailand. Fifty-five fire points in peat swamp areas were reported from 2012 to 2016. Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and GIS methods were used synergistically to analyze the following contributing factors: elevation, slope, aspect, precipitation, distance from river, distance from settlement and land use. The results of the present study indicate that the predicted fire risk areas from the methodology proposed are found to be in agreement with recorded past fire events. The fire risk map produced can be used for planning and management of wildland fire events in the future. GIS multi-criteria-based models have been developed in the context of fire prognosis; however, most of them attribute weights from simple pair-wise comparisons; we showcase that the integration of AHP provides accurate results for this study area in Thailand.