Allocation of carbon emission quotas among provinces in China: efficiency, fairness and balanced allocation

This paper constructs the ZSG-SBM model, comprehensive fairness allocation model, and balance allocation model from the perspectives of efficiency, fairness, and balance. Making use of the actual input-output data of China’s provincial economic system in 2019, and the above three models to study the reasonable scheme of China’s provincial carbon emission quota allocation in 2019. The results show that ZSG efficiency allocation can significantly improve the carbon emission efficiency of inefficient provinces, and the carbon emissions of inefficient provinces after allocation reach the efficiency frontier. The carbon emission quota of 16 provinces which located in the central and western regions of China with underdeveloped economy and relatively low carbon emission efficiency need to be decreased, while the eastern coastal provinces with more developed economy and high carbon emission efficiency in China should increase their carbon emission quota. On the one hand, comprehensive fairness allocation reduces the carbon emission reduction target constraints of economically underdeveloped provinces; on the other hand, it strengthens the carbon emission reduction target constraints of low-carbon technology backward provinces. As a result, the carbon emission quota of economically developed provinces and provinces with high carbon intensity per unit GDP is reduced in this method. The result of balancing efficiency and fairness lies between ZSG efficiency allocation and comprehensive fairness allocation. In order to alleviate the huge pressure on the emission reduction of provinces with low actual carbon emission efficiency under the ZSG efficiency allocation mode, the Chinese government can gradually increase the weight of ZSG efficiency allocation results, and finally adopt a complete ZSG efficiency allocation scheme in the carbon peak year to realize the transformation of low-carbon economy.