Late Pleistocene climate change shapes population divergence of an Atlantic Forest passerine: a model-based phylogeographic hypothesis test

Several evolutionary processes seem to have influenced the Atlantic Forest (AF) biogeographic history, as suggested by phylogeographic studies that have shown a multitude of patterns. Here, we use approximate Bayesian computation to test alternative historical hypotheses to investigate the phylogeographic pattern, historical demography, and palaeodistribution of the Grey-hooded Flycatcher Mionectes rufiventris, an endemic AF bird, distributed mainly in southern areas of the biome. Our goal was to integrate molecular and ecological data to test diversification hypotheses available for the AF. Our investigation revealed two mitochondrial phylogroups, geographically structured around the Doce River. Coalescence analyses revealed that these groups shared a common ancestor in the Late Pleistocene, between 200,000 and 300,000 years ago, and that divergence was probably associated with climatic fluctuations during this period. Demographic analyses suggested recent demographic expansion in both groups. Ecological niche modelling suggested larger ranges during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) than in the present, not in agreement with the genetic pattern recovered. We simulated alternative historical models to test these competing scenarios. Our findings support the existence of small populations during the LGM which expanded afterwards from putative refuges. Thus, these results suggest that the Pleistocene climate shaped patterns of diversification and demographic history of this species in accordance with the classical forest refuge hypothesis.