Long-term development prospects of the Russian information and communications sector

This paper presents a development forecast for the Russian information and communications sector. Two scenarios-inert and innovative investment-are explored for each period. According to the results of our study, in the period from 2010 to 2030, the output of the Russian information and communications sector will increase by a factor of 3.52-4 under the investment scenario and by a factor of 2-2.5 under the inert scenario. This is due to the limited private and public resources that could be invested in the sector on a large scale, as well as to the absence of basic innovation in the area of information and communication technologies, which could have a significant economic impact and provide a basis for a new technological order. It is concluded that the information and communications sector is running out of its market expansion potential. © 2011 Pleiades Publishing, Ltd.