Using sequences of life-events to predict human lives

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作者
Germans Savcisens
Tina Eliassi-Rad
Lars Kai Hansen
Laust Hvas Mortensen
Lau Lilleholt
Anna Rogers
Ingo Zettler
Sune Lehmann
机构
[1] Technical University of Denmark,DTU Compute
[2] Northeastern University,Network Science Institute
[3] Northeastern University,Khoury College of Computer Sciences
[4] Statistics Denmark,Data Science Lab
[5] University of Copenhagen,Department of Public Health
[6] University of Copenhagen,Department of Psychology
[7] University of Copenhagen,Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS)
[8] IT University of Copenhagen,Computer Science Department
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摘要
Here we represent human lives in a way that shares structural similarity to language, and we exploit this similarity to adapt natural language processing techniques to examine the evolution and predictability of human lives based on detailed event sequences. We do this by drawing on a comprehensive registry dataset, which is available for Denmark across several years, and that includes information about life-events related to health, education, occupation, income, address and working hours, recorded with day-to-day resolution. We create embeddings of life-events in a single vector space, showing that this embedding space is robust and highly structured. Our models allow us to predict diverse outcomes ranging from early mortality to personality nuances, outperforming state-of-the-art models by a wide margin. Using methods for interpreting deep learning models, we probe the algorithm to understand the factors that enable our predictions. Our framework allows researchers to discover potential mechanisms that impact life outcomes as well as the associated possibilities for personalized interventions.
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页码:43 / 56
页数:13
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