Which patients have a sufficiently concrete prospect of treatment success in forensic addiction treatment according to </n> 64 of the German Penal Code?

In Germany offenders with addiction problems may be sentenced to treatment in forensic psychiatric institutions (</n> 64 of the German Penal Code). Presuppositions are a strong habit to use alcohol or drugs, an offence related to this habit, the risk of further offences due to the habit and sufficient prospects that the treatment may reduce this risk. Despite standardized recommendations for expert assessment regarding the prospects of treatment, an increasing number of forensic addiction treatments and still high drop-out rates can be observed in the forensic treatment under </n> 64 of the German Penal Code (StGB). The aim of this study was to determine the prognostic variables for treatment success based on the limited variables available to the experts at the time of the legal proceedings. In addition, the question of whether a reliable assessment of a sufficient chance of treatment success is possible on the basis of these factors alone is discussed. On the basis of a data collection in 2019, sociodemographic and delinquency-related variables were examined regarding their predictive influence on the outcome of treatment. The sample included 2046 patients, who were on average 37 years old (SD +/- 9.11 years). A school leaving certificate, a job at the time of offence, a drug-related offence as the reason for the conviction and parenthood were identified as positive factors and migration background as a negative factor for the success of the treatment.