Extended Gravity Model of International Trade: An Empirical Application to Czech Trade Flows

The aim of this paper is to investigate the effect of exchange rate volatility on bilateral trade flows between the Czech Republic and its major trading partners. For this purpose we employ extended trade gravity model approach. Trade volume between a pair of countries is modeled as an increasing function of their sizes (GDP) and a decreasing function of the distance between the two countries. Additional factors included in extended model are population, dummies for common border; membership in EU and proxy for exchange rate volatility. Generally is expected that increased exchange rate volatility increases the risk of exporters and reduces foreign trade. This paper explores relationship between trade and exchange rate volatility using quarterly data over the period 1997:1 - 2012:2. In order to obtain the objective result, we use the panel data regression with 17 trading partners. Based on a gravity model that controls for other factors likely to determine bilateral trade, the results suggest that nominal exchange rate volatility of Czech koruna has a significant negative effect on bilateral trade over the sample period.