Pantograph-catenary contact reliability analysis under crosswind

Purpose This paper aims to establish the relationship between crosswind speed and pantograph-catenary lateral deviation, as well as quantify the influence of crosswind speed and rod size uncertainty on pantograph-catenary contact reliability. Design/methodology/approach The closed vector method is used to establish the pantograph-catenary kinematics formula. A new prediction model is proposed by using the bird swarm algorithm to optimize the grey model. The lateral deviation of the pantograph and catenary is predicted via the new model. Then the relationship between the effective length of the rod and operating mileage is inferred by combining the effective length theory with the Gamma process, as well as the pantograph-catenary contact reliability model is established according to reliability theory. Findings The results obtained show the impacts of uncertainty design parameters of pantograph rods on pantograph-catenary contact reliability index, and the results at crosswind speed of 0 ms(-1) and 5 ms(-1) are 5.0630 and 4.1442, respectively. The reliability decreases with the increasing crosswind speed, and can be greater than the reliability calculated for rod size degradation due to long-term use. Originality/value Most preceding works on pantograph-catenary contact reliability were based on principles of dynamics, without considering the pantograph-catenary relative motion. This research reveals the law of pantograph-catenary relative motion for uncertainty design parameters and crosswind, and quantifies the reliability from the angle of kinematics.