Climate change effects on agricultural productivity in the midwestern Great Lakes region

The purpose of this paper is to report preliminary results of a study that examines trends since the 1940s and models climate change effects on agriculture production in the midwestern Great Lakes region, which is composed of Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin. Changes in crop productivity for corn and soybeans were modeled using both process models and statistical models. The process model, CENTURY 4.0, a soil organic matter model utilizes climate, soil parameters, and management practices as input data for the modeling process. The statistical model uses climate variables to estimate parameters and forecast future crop yields. Output data from the CENTURY 4.0 model was produced through 2060; forecasts from the statistical model were generated through 2017. While the modeling process using CENTURY 4.0 was applied to all counties in the five-state region, the statistical model was applied to selected counties in the region for intermodel comparison.