Spatial and temporal variability of Antarctic precipitation from atmospheric methods

The spatial and temporal variability of net precipitation (precipitation minus evaporation/sublimation) for Antarctica derived from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts operational analyses via the atmospheric moisture budget is assessed in comparison to a variety of glaciological and meteorological observations and datasets. For the 11-yr period 1985-95, the average continental value is 151 mm yr(-1) water equivalent. Large regional differences with other datasets are identified, and the sources of error are considered. Interannual variability in the Southern Ocean storm tracks is found to be an important mechanism for enhanced precipitation minus evaporation (P - E) in both east and west Antarctica. In relation to the present findings, an evaluation of the rawinsonde method for estimating net precipitation in east Antarctica is conducted. Estimates of P - E using synthetic rawinsondes derived from the analyses are found to compare favorably to glaciological estimates. A significant upward trend of 2.4 mm yr(-1) is found for the Antarctic continent that is consistent with findings from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, formerly the National Meteorological Center, and the National Center for Atmospheric Research Reanalysis precipitation dataset. Despite large regional discrepancies, the general agreement on the main features of Antarctic precipitation between studies suggests that a threshold has been reached, where the assessment of the smaller terms including evaporation/sublimation and drift snow loss is required to explain the differences.