Radionuclide migration through fractured rock for arbitrary-length decay chain: Analytical solution and global sensitivity analysis

This study presents an analytical approach to simulate nuclide migration through a channel in a fracture accounting for an arbitrary-length decay chain. The nuclides are retarded as they diffuse in the porous rock matrix and stagnant zones in the fracture. The Laplace transform and similarity transform techniques are applied to solve the model. The analytical solution to the nuclide concentrations at the fracture outlet is governed by nine parameters representing different mechanisms acting on nuclide transport through a fracture, including diffusion into the rock matrices, diffusion into the stagnant water zone, chain decay and hydrodynamic dispersion. Furthermore, to assess how sensitive the results are to parameter uncertainties, the Sobol method is applied in variance-based global sensitivity analyses of the model output. The Sobol indices show how uncertainty in the model output is apportioned to the uncertainty in the model input. This method takes into account both direct effects and interaction effects between input parameters. The simulation results suggest that in the case of pulse injections, ignoring the effect of a stagnant water zone can lead to significant errors in the time-of-first arrival and the peak value of the nuclides. Likewise, neglecting the parent and modeling its daughter as a single stable species can result in a significant overestimation of the peak value of the daughter nuclide. It is also found that as the dispersion increases, the early arrival time and the peak time of the daughter decrease while the peak value increases. More importantly, the global sensitivity analysis reveals that for time periods greater than a few thousand years, the uncertainty of the model output is more sensitive to the values of the individual parameters than to the interaction between them. Moreover, if one tries to evaluate the true values of the input parameters at the same cost and effort, the determination of priorities should follow a certain sequence. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.