Resilience assessment of asphalt pavement rutting under climate change

The service performances of asphalt pavement, especially rutting, will be inevitably affected by climate change. However, existing studies have generally focused on the rutting depth and rutting life, and thus became insufficient for comprehensively evaluating the influence of climate change on rutting over the service life. A resilience assessment method for asphalt pavement rutting is developed to solve the above problem. First, the original resilience method is extended to fit the system whose performance level continues to decline. Then, the calculation formulas of rutting resilience are derived by combining the rutting prediction model and the level assessment model. Subsequently, the influence degrees of climate change in representative cities on rutting resilience are studied. The results suggest that neglecting climate change in rutting design of asphalt pavement will lead to insufficient resilience, especially in northern China. Furthermore, the predicted temperature under RCP8.5 should be employed for asphalt pavement design.