Sharpen statistical significance: Evidence thresholds and Bayes factors sharpened into Occam's razor

被引:11
|
作者
Bickel, David R. [1 ]
机构
[1] Univ Ottawa, Dept Math & Stat, Dept Biochem Microbiol & Immunol, Ottawa Inst Syst Biol, 451 Smyth Rd, Ottawa, ON K1H 8M5, Canada
来源
STAT | 2019年 / 8卷 / 01期
基金
加拿大自然科学与工程研究理事会;
关键词
adjustment for simplicity; empirical Bayes methods; p value calibration; reproducibility crisis; strength of statistical evidence; P-VALUES;
D O I
10.1002/sta4.215
中图分类号
O21 [概率论与数理统计]; C8 [统计学];
学科分类号
020208 ; 070103 ; 0714 ;
摘要
Occam's razor suggests assigning more prior probability to a hypothesis corresponding to a simpler distribution of data than to a hypothesis with a more complex distribution of data, other things equal. An idealization of Occam's razor in terms of the entropy of the data distributions tends to favor the null hypothesis over the alternative hypothesis. As a result, lower p values are needed to attain the same level of evidence. A recently debated argument for lowering the significance level to 0.005 as the p value threshold for a new discovery and to 0.05 for a suggestive result would then support further lowering them to 0.001 and 0.01, respectively.
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页数:8
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