Economic Analysis for Small Hydroelectric Power Plant using Extended Multi-Index Methodology - An Approach Stochastic by the Monte Carlo Simulation

The estimative about increasing of electric energy consume in the next years has been desperted the interesting of the investors in the branch of electrical power generation, mainly from renewable sources, in which the Small Hydroelectric Power Plant (SHPP) is inserted. In that, an improved economic viability analysis becomes indispensable for investment projects with high value of implantation. For this analysis was used an adherent methodology with the stochastic approach, by Monte Carlo Simulation, called Extended Multi-Index Methodology (MMIA). Especially, this SHPP would have capacity of 7 MW installed, whose production would be sold by contract model ACR and associated of the MRE, as measuring of risk containment, seen that (visto que) the electrical production is not uniform during all periods and also considering the great variability of the others variables. The simulation using the random numbers informs that with an initial investment between R$ 28 million and R$ 35 million, the probability is 81.50% to a NPV between R$ 10 million and R$ 15 million and 10.80% of probability of achieving the NPV bigger than R$ 15 million The biggest NPV has probable value near to R$ 22.58 million. Regarding to the risk, the probability of NPV to be smaller than or equal to R$ 1.46 million is 1%, while that, for this same probability, the excessive loss may reach R$ 0.95 million Other economic indicators of this project are: ROIA equals to 0.99%, the IBC is R$ 1.3492 and the average IRR is 14.13%