Factors that predict morbidity and mortality in patients with perforated peptic ulcers

Background: The demographic changes of perforated peptic ulcer disease were assessed in a well-defined population in northern Finland. The high mortality from perforated peptic ulcer underlines the importance of risk stratification, and clinical variables and three scoring systems were therefore tested for their ability to predict the probability of morbidity and mortality. Methods: Two hundred and eighty patients admitted to a university hospital with peptic ulcer perforation during the 22-year period 1979-2000 were identified using a computer database, and their clinical data were reviewed from the database and patient records. Results: The annual operation rate for ulcer perforation has varied from 2.7/100000 in 1979 to 6.2 in 1985 and 3.6 in 2000 without any significant changes during the examination period. More operations have been performed for duodenal (157) than for gastric (123) ulcer perforations, but their incidence rates were quite similar at the beginning and the end of the period. Of the clinical variables, two or more associated illnesses, duration of symptoms for more than 24 hours, the amount of abdominal liquid, and low albumin concentration predicted morbidity, while a long duration of symptoms and the amount of abdominal liquid were independent risk factors for mortality. The NIPI score correctly predicted 96% of postoperative complications and all the three scores, i.e. the Boey score, the MPI score and the ASA score, were good predictors of mortality. Conclusion: The incidence of peptic ulcer perforation has not changed during the 22-year period in northern Finland. All the three scores, i.e. the Boey score, the MPI score and the ASA score, predict mortality in patients with peptic ulcer perforation and are suitable for risk stratification preoperatively in the surgical ward.