SECTORAL CHANGE AND UNEMPLOYMENT DURING THE GREAT RECESSION, IN HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE

I examine the effect of sectoral change on U.S. state unemployment during the Great Recession. Of the 4.1 percentage point increase in mean state unemployment between 2007 and 2009, increased structural change explains 0.6-1.18 percentage points, and increased estimated effects of structural change 0.8-2.7 percentage points. Despite the role of housing in the recession, neither construction nor any other one sector can account for the results. Although the pace and role of structural change had returned to normal levels after the Great Recession, their effects persisted, raising mean state unemployment by 0.9-2.3 percentage points in 2011.