Estimation of the losses in potential concentrated solar thermal power electricity production due to air pollution in China

The concentrated solar thermal power (CSP) industry is projected to expand rapidly in China in the next 30 years. However, anthropogenic aerosol emissions reduce direct radiation (Rdir) reaching the surface, resulting in the losses of potential CSP electricity production in China. In this study, we applied various models to estimate daily Rdir, and the results showed that the gradient boosting with categorical features support (CatBoost) model was superior to other models, and coefficient of determination (R), root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) were 0.96, 1.99 MJ m(-2) day(-1) and 1.92 MJ m(-2) day(-1), respectively. We used Rdir data set at 839 stations across China derived by CatBoost model to calculate losses of the potential CSP electricity production from aerosol emissions. The results showed that the potential CSP electricity production decreased by 12.9% (136 kWh) on average at provincial level during 1961-2015. It is plausible that air quality will continue to improve from now due to the success of previous air pollution control measurements and the commitment to the United Nations of "Carbon Neutrality". It was found that returning to direct radiation levels in 1960s could yield a 15.8% increase in potential CSP electricity production, equal to 28.4-79 TWh with the expected 2050 CSP installation capacities. The corresponding economic benefits could reach 17.1-56.9 billion RMB in 2050. The findings in this study will be beneficial for siting, designing and optimizing CSP systems in China. (C) 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.