High and dry in days gone by: Life-history theory predicts Appalachian mountain stream fish assemblage transformation during historical drought

Understanding the ecological dimensions of drought is critical for predicting how humans and nature will be affected by the expected increased prevalence of drought in the future. We tested life-history-based predictions for fish assemblage responses to drought using retrospective analysis of long-term (1986-2003) fish surveys from two streams in the Appalachian Mountains of North America. We hypothesised that (1) fish assemblage composition would correlate with wet and dry hydrologic conditions as assemblages fluctuated within a loose equilibrium and (2) life-history traits of fishes would correlate with dry versus wet periods such that opportunistic life-history strategists would dominate during drought. Results showed fish assemblage changes in Little River and Cataloochee Creek correlated with drought severity measured one year prior to fish surveys. Fish assemblages at all three sampling sites in Little River and two sites in Cataloochee Creek fluctuated within a loose equilibrium, while the remaining two sites in Cataloochee Creek indicated directional change. Life-history traits for fishes in Cataloochee Creek correlated with one-year time lag fluctuations in drought caused by opportunistic species being dominant during drought and periodic/equilibrium species dominant during wet periods. Time series plots of fish abundances aggregated by life-history strategy revealed dominance of opportunistic species emerged at the onset of a multi-year drought spanning 1998-2004, particularly for the two sites undergoing directional change. Our work provides empirical evidence for theoretical linkages between life history and environmental fluctuations and can ultimately be used to predict stream fish community response to future drought regimes.