Diffusion of mobile communications: Application of bass diffusion model to BRIC countries

The growth of mobile communications market needs to be studied and understood, from three perspectives: i) Drivers, nature and impact of the growth of mobile communications in depth; ii) Lessons from global markets and other industries can help cellular operators bring telecoms to poorer people; and iii) Lessons from this market can be applied to other fundamental needs that have to reach out to the "bottom of the pyramid". This paper presents applicability of the Bass Diffusion Model (BDM) to Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC markets). BDM explains the diffusion of mobile communications in these countries well. In the case of India, there are two key findings: (i) Value of 'q' the coefficient of internal influence (word- of- mouth and contact) is very high compared to the other BRIC countries in the sample; and (ii) BDM predicts a potential market of about 200 million subscribers.