Diagnostic verification of hydrometeorological and hydrologic ensembles

被引：44

作者：

Demargne, Julie ^{[1
,2
]}

Brown, James ^{[1
,2
]}

Liu, Yuqiong ^{[1
,3
]}

Seo, Dong-Jun ^{[1
,2
]}

Wu, Limin ^{[1
,4
]}

Toth, Zoltan ^{[5
]}

Zhu, Yuejian ^{[6
]}

机构：

[1] Natl Weather Serv, NOAA, Off Hydrol Dev, Silver Spring, MD USA

[2] Univ Corp Atmospher Res, Boulder, CO USA

[3] Riverside Technol Inc, Ft Collins, CO USA

[4] Wyle Informat Syst, Mclean, VA USA

[5] NOAA, Earth Syst Res Lab, Boulder, CO USA

[6] Natl Weather Serv, NOAA, Natl Ctr Environm Predict, Camp Springs, MD USA

来源：

ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE LETTERS | 2010年 / 11卷 / 02期

关键词：

ensembles; hydrological forecasting; probabilistic verification; uncertainty;

D O I：

10.1002/asl.261

中图分类号：

P3 [地球物理学]; P59 [地球化学];

学科分类号：

0708 ; 070902 ;

摘要：

This paper presents a strategy for diagnostic verification of hydrologic ensembles, based on the selection of summary verification metrics (which could be extended to more detailed metrics) and the analysis of the relative contribution of the different sources of error. Such diagnostic verification could be conducted with the Ensemble Verification System (EVS) and is illustrated with a verification case study of experimental precipitation and streamflow ensemble reforecasts over a 24-year period. The EVS is proposed as a flexible and modular tool for the HEPEX verification test-bed to evaluate existing and emerging verification methods that are appropriate for hydrologic applications. Published in 2010 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

引用

页码：114 / 122

页数：9

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