A practitioner's view: Evolutionary stages of disruptive technologies

Researchers at Sandia National Laboratories have seen that disruptive technologies when successful evolve into three distinct stages. Each stage is characterized by a distinct market size and level of infrastructure. Each stage elicits specific behavioral responses. Stage I is achieved when the proposed concept is demonstrated. At this point, the technology has not found a market and essentially none of the required infrastructure exists. In Stage 2, the emergent technology establishes a specific application for a limited market, which enables the development and maturation of a limited infrastructure. Stage 3 is achieved when the technology achieves widespread application in the solution set for product developers. Experience suggests that Stage 2 is achieved only when the disruptive technology can provide a unique solution to a problem of substantial importance. However, to expand to the commercial maturity accomplished in Stage 3, the emergent technology must either continue to find important but unresolved problems or alternatively must compete for differential advantage against the defensive innovations of established technologies in the targeted application areas. "True believers" who are committed to the emergent technology sustain Stage 1 and Stage 2 activities. Finally, the authors note the importance of targeting the correct application area to evolve the technology from Stage 2 to Stage 3 behavior. The evolution from Stage 2 to Stage 3 can be considered a coupled system as the emergent technology encounters feedback from the marketplace and competition from established technologies. These factors introduce nonlinearities in the system, making the application of traditional linear technology forecasting techniques problematic for emergent technologies. The authors provide anecdotal evidence in the form of a case study centered on ion implantation, a disruptive technological step in a sustaining technology platform.