Mycotoxin transfer along the feed to food chain: A simulation approach

Mycotoxins are secondary metabolites produced by fungi when cereals or animal feed are colonised by moulds. Toxins may be excreted from milk produced by bovines which have been fed mycotoxin contaminated feed; this may represent a human health risk. The objective of this study was to develop a quantitative risk assessment model for mycotoxins in dairy milk and to assess the potential risks to consumers. Monte Carlo simulation techniques were used to account for parameter uncertainty and variability. The model indicates that human exposure to mycotoxins through dairy milk is likely to be well below recommended EU guidelines. There is a deficiency in data for the carryover rate between mycotoxins in feed and milk produce, thus suggesting the need for further research in this area. Ongoing research will try to fill these data gaps in order to reduce model uncertainty and to create performance objectives for the feed industry.