Relative impact of red blood cell transfusion and anaemia on 5-year mortality in cardiac surgery

OBJECTIVES: The aim was to compare the relative effects of red blood cell (RBC) transfusion and preoperative anaemia on 5-year mortality following open-heart cardiac surgery using structural equation modelling. We hypothesized that patient risk factors associated with RBC transfusion are of larger importance than transfusion itself. METHODS: This prospective cohort study, part of the Cardiac Surgery Outcome Study at St. Olavs University Hospital, Trondheim, Norway, included open-heart on-pump cardiac surgery patients operated on from 2000 through 2017 (n=9315). Structural equation modelling, which allows for intervariable correlations, was used to analyse pathway diagrams between known risk factors and observed mortality between 30days and 5years postoperatively. Observation times between 30days and 1year, and 1-5years postoperatively were also compared with the main analysis. RESULTS: In a simplified model, preoperative anaemia had a larger effect on 5-year mortality than RBC transfusion (standardized coefficients: 0.17 vs 0.09). The complete model including multiple risk factors showed that patient risk factors such as age (0.15), anaemia (0.10), pulmonary disease (0.11) and higher creatinine level (0.12) had larger effects than transfusion (0.03). Results from several sensitivity analyses supported the main findings. The models showed good fit. CONCLUSIONS: Preoperative anaemia had a larger impact on 5-year mortality than RBC transfusion. Differences in 5-year mortality were mainly associated with patient risk factors.