Hospitalization for peptic ulcer bleeding: evaluation of a risk scoring system in clinical practice

Background. Upper gastrointestinal tract haemorrhage is a common cause of hospitalization: resource utilization in management of peptic ulcer bleeding varies considerably with no apparent effect on patient outcome. Several risk score systems based on endoscopic and clinical data have been proposed and validated in order to aid patient management. Aim. To assess clinical reliability of a scoring system and to define guidelines to improve efficiency of patient management without reducing efficacy. Methods. We considered all patients admitted to our unit for bleeding peptic ulcer over a one-year period. Every patient had an early endoscopy (within 12 hours) and therapy according to the appearance of the ulcer defined by Forrest classification. All subjects were classified into low-; intermediate- and high-risk patients on basis of clinical and endoscopic features according to "Cedar Sinai Medical Center predictive index" which was applied retrospectively in first six months then perspectively for the last period using the results obtained from first semester. For each risk group, we compared Length of Hospital Stay; number of blood units used in transfusion, rebleeding rate, need for surgery as well as mortality in the two periods, using Student t test. We correlated Length of Hospital Stay and every score parameter by applying analysis of variance to results over the one-year period. Results. Study population consists of 91 patients. Recurrent bleeding was observed in only three entering the high-risk group, only one of whom needed surgery. Overall mortality was 9.8% (9 patients, only one for rebleeding). Variance analysis showed that the only parameter of the "Cedar Sinai Medical Center predictive index" which correlated with Length of Hospital Stay was comorbidity (p less than or equal to0.05). Comparing the two periods, a close application of the score in the last six months allowed Length of Hospital Stay to be reduced in low-risk patients (t test with p=0.004) resulting in early discharge of 33% of cases without affecting patient outcome. Conclusions. This study confirms the reliability of the "Cedar Sinai Medical Center predictive index" in clinical practice improving the strategy of applying economic resources. Longer Length of Hospital Stay of intermediate- and high-risk groups is influenced more by comorbidities than by endoscopic findings. Early discharge was possible in one third of low risk patients. An accurate evaluation clinical parameters on admission together with early endoscopy may achieve the goal of reducing costs with a correct patient management.