Exploring social-ecological systems in the transition from war to peace: A scenario-based approach to forecasting the post-conflict landscape in a Colombian region

被引：19

作者：

Zuniga-Upegui, P. ^{[1
,2
]}

Arnaiz-Schmitz, C. ^{[1
]}

Herrero-Jauregui, C. ^{[3
]}

Smart, S. M. ^{[4
]}

Lopez-Santiago, C. A. ^{[1
,5
]}

Schmitz, M. F. ^{[3
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Autonoma Madrid, Social Ecol Syst Lab, Dept Ecol, E-28049 Madrid, Spain

[2] Univ Tolima, Fac Ciencias, Grp Invest Zool, Ibague, Colombia

[3] Univ Complutense Madrid, Dept Biodivers Ecol & Evolut, E-28040 Madrid, Spain

[4] NERC Ctr Ecol & Hydrol, Lib Ave, Lancaster, England

[5] UAM, Ctr Invest Biodiversidad & Cambio Global CBIC, Madrid, Spain

来源：

SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT | 2019年 / 695卷

关键词：

Land planning; Scenario-based approach; Peacebuilding process; Warfare ecology; Post-conflict society; ECOSYSTEM SERVICES PROVISION; LAND-COVER CHANGE; ARMED CONFLICT; FOREST-COVER; BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION; AGRICULTURAL LAND; PRICE SHOCKS; AREAS; COFFEE; DYNAMICS;

D O I：

10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.133874

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

This paper describes the relationship between the landscape and the socio-economic and political characteristics of a highly biodiverse Andean region of Colombia, which is now recovering from the socio-ecological impact of protracted armed conflict. We quantify the current spatial relationship between nature and society, and we include legacy effects from the most recent period of armed conflict and its consequences of forced displacement and land use disruption. The procedure followed provides a quantitative model where a minimum number of socio-economic and political variables explain the variation in land cover. The results represent the relationship between land use intensity and the main socio-economic and political indicators, highlighting a close interaction between landscape configuration, socio-economic structure of local populations, coercive conservation and armed conflict. A simulated post-conflict landscape shows a clear transition gradient towards agrarian expansion and intensification, also in systems where naturalness is a relevant feature. The peace process in Colombia offers opportunities for new schemes of land planning and management, including natural resource governance and policy reforms to improve welfare and resilience of local communities. The results allow to define options for future planning given the possible consequences of socio-political legacy effects yet to fully play out across Colombia. (C) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

引用

页数：15