Study on Storm Surge Prediction Model Considering Typhoon Characteristics for Largest Scale

The coastal area of Japan has been damaged yearly with many storm surges and flooding disasters in the past, including those associated with tropical cyclones (TCs). Also, the scale of damage is increasing rapidly due to the changing global climate and environment. As the disasters due to storm surges become unpredictable, more measures should be taken to prevent serious damage and casualties. Therefore, in this study, the aim is to mitigate the unpredictable damage by assuming storm surges of the largest scale and to propose a storm surge model that considers the characteristics of TCs. The main objectives of this study are to analyze the characteristics of TCs due to pass through Japan and to develop a storm surge prediction model that is appropriate for the largest scale of TCs. We divided the tracks of typhoons into 4 groups of data from 1951 to 2015 (the number of typhoons was 756) in order to analyze TC characteristics that have the greatest effect on the target area. Another goal is to estimate the meteorological fields using parametric models and grid point values (GPVs) for verification and validation. The simulated results of meteorological fields are in comparatively good agreement when using (GPV data rather than parametric models. Furthermore, we propose simulation methods for application toward storm surges of the largest scale.