Piecewise linear trends and cycles in primary commodity prices

被引:12
|
作者
Winkelried, Diego [1 ]
机构
[1] Univ Pacifico, Lima, Peru
关键词
Commodity prices; Piecewise linear trends; Hodrick-Prescott filter; Super cycles; SUPER CYCLES; PREBISCH; GRILLI; TERMS; TRADE; YANG;
D O I
10.1016/j.jimonfin.2016.01.006
中图分类号
F8 [财政、金融];
学科分类号
0202 ;
摘要
We extend the methodology put forward in Yamada and Yoon (2014, Journal of International Money and Finance, 42(C), 193-207) to analyze the trend and cyclical behavior of relative primary commodity prices. These authors propose the use of the so-called l(1)-filter that renders piecewise linear trends of the underlying data. Our focus on the calibration of such filter and its implications for the empirical analysis of primary commodity prices, especially the interpretation given to the resulting trend. We also illustrate how suitably calibrated filters may be used to compute piecewise linear (super) cycles, whose turning points are easy to identify. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
引用
收藏
页码:196 / 213
页数:18
相关论文
共 50 条
  • [1] When Grilli and Yang meet Prebisch and Singer: Piecewise linear trends in primary commodity prices
    Yamada, Hiroshi
    Yoon, Gawon
    [J]. JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL MONEY AND FINANCE, 2014, 42 : 193 - 207
  • [2] A reexamination of trends in primary commodity prices
    Ghoshray, Atanu
    [J]. JOURNAL OF DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS, 2011, 95 (02) : 242 - 251
  • [3] On the prevalence of trends in primary commodity prices
    Kellard, N
    Wohar, ME
    [J]. JOURNAL OF DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS, 2006, 79 (01) : 146 - 167
  • [4] Short-term cycles in primary commodity prices
    Labys, WC
    Kouassi, E
    Terraza, M
    [J]. DEVELOPING ECONOMIES, 2000, 38 (03): : 330 - 342
  • [5] Testing for linear trend with application to relative primary commodity prices
    Kim, TH
    Pfaffenzeller, S
    Rayner, T
    Newbold, P
    [J]. JOURNAL OF TIME SERIES ANALYSIS, 2003, 24 (05) : 539 - 551
  • [6] DISCERNING TRENDS IN COMMODITY PRICES
    Dimitropoulos, Dimitri
    Yatchew, Adonis
    [J]. MACROECONOMIC DYNAMICS, 2018, 22 (03) : 683 - 701
  • [7] COMMON TRENDS, COMMODITY PRICES AND CONSUMER PRICES
    KUGLER, P
    [J]. ECONOMICS LETTERS, 1991, 37 (04) : 345 - 349
  • [8] Are there exploitable trends in commodity futures prices?
    Han, Yufeng
    Hu, Ting
    Yang, Jian
    [J]. JOURNAL OF BANKING & FINANCE, 2016, 70 : 214 - 234
  • [9] Revisiting super-cycles in commodity prices
    Erdem, Fatma Pinar
    Unalmis, Ibrahim
    [J]. CENTRAL BANK REVIEW, 2016, 16 (04) : 137 - 142
  • [10] Kondratiev long cycles in metal commodity prices
    Maranon, Matias
    Kumral, Mustafa
    [J]. RESOURCES POLICY, 2019, 61 : 21 - 28