Application of genetic algorithm combined with improved SEIR model in predicting the epidemic trend of COVID-19, China

被引：11

作者：

Qiu, Zhenzhen ^{[1
]}

Sun, Youyi ^{[1
]}

He, Xuan ^{[1
]}

Wei, Jing ^{[1
]}

Zhou, Rui ^{[1
]}

Bai, Jie ^{[1
]}

Du, Shouying ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Beijing Univ Chinese Med, Sch Chinese Mat Med, Beijing 102488, Peoples R China

来源：

SCIENTIFIC REPORTS | 2022年 / 12卷 / 01期

关键词：

DYNAMICS;

D O I：

10.1038/s41598-022-12958-z

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

Since the outbreak of the 2019 Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) at the end of 2019, it has caused great adverse effects on the whole world, and it has been hindering the global economy. It is ergent to establish an infectious disease model for the current COVID-19 epidemic to predict the trend of the epidemic. Based on the SEIR model, the improved SEIR models were established with considering the incubation period, the isolated population, and genetic algorithm (GA) parameter optimization method. The improved SEIR models can predict the trend of the epidemic situation better and obtain the more accurate epidemic-related parameters. Comparing some key parameters, it is capable to evaluate the impact of different epidemic prevention measures and the implementation of different epidemic prevention levels on the COVID-19, which has significant guidance for further epidemic prevention measures.

引用

页数：9

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