Whither ecology? Reflections on the past 50 years

Basic and applied ecology have made major strides in the past 50 years, driven by an experimental approach to field populations, communities and ecosystems, assisted by development of rigorous ecological methods. However, it is argued in this chapter that general theory eludes both community and ecosystem ecology, the latter potentially the most important for human society. Consequently, our understanding of most communities is highly local and time specific. Most mathematical models in ecology bear little relation to reality, rely on assumptions that are tested rarely and exist in isolation from empirical ecology. Future progress in ecology will be slow, constrained by the time required to conduct effective ecological experiments. Good management and good policy can evolve only from good science, so if we do not get the science right we fail in our overall mission - to understand Earth's ecosystems and to preserve them for posterity.