The fact remains: Party ID moderates how voters respond to economic change

被引:16
|
作者
Bailey, Jack [1 ]
机构
[1] Univ Manchester, Sch Social Sci, Arthur Lewis Bldg, Manchester M13 9PL, Lancs, England
基金
英国经济与社会研究理事会;
关键词
PERCEPTIONS; MODELS; US; CONSEQUENCES; PARTISANSHIP; CAUSALITY; BRITAIN; MATTER; BIAS;
D O I
10.1016/j.electstud.2019.102071
中图分类号
D0 [政治学、政治理论];
学科分类号
0302 ; 030201 ;
摘要
Recent research suggests that party identification biases voters' economic perceptions in general, but that all voters respond to economic change at the same rate. This implies that voters update their economic perceptions in parallel and are able to hold governments to account. But this has two problems. First, it contradicts evidence of partisan-motivated information processing. Second, parallel-updating does not imply unbiased information processing and is normatively less appealing than if partisans' economic perceptions were to converge at economic extremes. In this article, I argue instead that party identification does moderate how voters' economic perceptions respond to economic change. I test my argument on data from one ordinary and one extraordinary period in Britain's recent economic history using competing Bayesian multilevel ordered-logit models. I show that economic change does lead to changes in voters' economic perceptions. But I also show that party identification moderates this process. As such, voters update their economic perceptions along separate, not parallel, paths.
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页数:13
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