Long-term Caspian Sea level change

被引：91

作者：

Chen, J. L. ^{[1
]}

Pekker, T. ^{[1
]}

Wilson, C. R. ^{[1
,2
]}

Tapley, B. D. ^{[1
]}

Kostianoy, A. G. ^{[3
,4
]}

Cretaux, J. -F. ^{[5
]}

Safarov, E. S. ^{[6
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Texas Austin, Ctr Space Res, Austin, TX 78712 USA

[2] Univ Texas Austin, Dept Geol Sci, Dept Geol Sci, Austin, TX USA

[3] PP Shirshov Inst Oceanol, Moscow, Russia

[4] S Yu Witte Moscow Univ, Lab Integrated Studies Water Resources, Moscow, Russia

[5] Legos CNES, Toulouse, France

[6] Inst Geog, Dept Caspian Sea Level Problem, Baku, Azerbaijan

来源：

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS | 2017年 / 44卷 / 13期

基金：

俄罗斯科学基金会;

关键词：

CONNECTION; REGIME;

D O I：

10.1002/2017GL073958

中图分类号：

P [天文学、地球科学];

学科分类号：

07 ;

摘要：

Caspian Sea level (CSL) has undergone substantial fluctuations during the past several hundred years. The causes over the entire historical period are uncertain, but we investigate here large changes seen in the past several decades. We use climate model-predicted precipitation (P), evaporation (E), and observed river runoff (R) to reconstruct long-term CSL changes for 1979-2015 and show that PER (P-E + R) flux predictions agree very well with observed CSL changes. The observed rapid CSL increase (about 12.74 cm/yr) and significant drop (similar to-6.72 cm/yr) during the periods 1979-1995 and 1996-2015 are well accounted for by integrated PER flux predictions of similar to+12.38 and similar to-6.79 cm/yr, respectively. We show that increased evaporation rates over the Caspian Sea play a dominant role in reversing the increasing trend in CSL during the past 37 years. The current long-term decline in CSL is expected to continue into the foreseeable future, under global warming scenarios.

引用

页码：6993 / 7001

页数：9

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