Best convective parameterization scheme within RegCM4 to downscale CMIP5 multi-model data for the CORDEX-MENA/Arab domain

被引:26
|
作者
Almazroui, Mansour [1 ]
Islam, Md. Nazrul [1 ]
Al-Khalaf, A. K. [1 ]
Saeed, Fahad [1 ,2 ]
机构
[1] King Abdulaziz Univ, Ctr Excellence Climate Change Res, Dept Meteorol, Jeddah 21413, Saudi Arabia
[2] Sustainable Dev Policy Inst, Islamabad, Pakistan
关键词
REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL; LARGE-SCALE MODELS; CUMULUS CONVECTION; ARABIAN PENINSULA; BOUNDARY-LAYERS; FUTURE CLIMATE; RAINFALL; PRECIPITATION; VARIABILITY; SIMULATION;
D O I
10.1007/s00704-015-1463-5
中图分类号
P4 [大气科学(气象学)];
学科分类号
0706 ; 070601 ;
摘要
A suitable convective parameterization scheme within Regional Climate Model version 4.3.4 (RegCM4) developed by the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy, is investigated through 12 sensitivity runs for the period 2000-2010. RegCM4 is driven with European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA-Interim 6-hourly boundary condition fields for the CORDEX-MENA/Arab domain. Besides ERA-Interim lateral boundary conditions data, the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) data is also used to assess the performance of RegCM4. Different statistical measures are taken into consideration in assessing model performance for 11 sub-domains throughout the analysis domain, out of which 7 (4) sub-domains give drier (wetter) conditions for the area of interest. There is no common best option for the simulation of both rainfall and temperature (with lowest bias); however, one option each for temperature and rainfall has been found to be superior among the 12 options investigated in this study. These best options for the two variables vary from region to region as well. Overall, RegCM4 simulates large pressure and water vapor values along with lower wind speeds compared to the driving fields, which are the key sources of bias in simulating rainfall and temperature. Based on the climatic characteristics of most of the Arab countries located within the study domain, the drier sub-domains are given priority in the selection of a suitable convective scheme, albeit with a compromise for both rainfall and temperature simulations. The most suitable option Grell over Land and Emanuel over Ocean in wet (GLEO wet) delivers a rainfall wet bias of 2.96 % and a temperature cold bias of 0.26 degrees C, compared to CRU data. An ensemble derived from all 12 runs provides unsatisfactory results for rainfall (28.92 %) and temperature (-0.54 degrees C) bias in the drier region because some options highly overestimate rainfall (reaching up to 200 %) and underestimate temperature (reaching up to -1.16 degrees C). Overall, a suitable option (GLEO wet) is recommended for downscaling the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model database using RegCM4 for the CORDEX-MENA/Arab domain for its use in future climate change impact studies.
引用
收藏
页码:807 / 823
页数:17
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