Generating revenue by raising tobacco taxes in Latin America and the Caribbean

Objective. The objective of this study was to determine if raising tobacco taxes in the Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) region will generate extra tax revenue, even at outer edges of the sensitivity analysis, with relatively high price elasticities of demand for cigarettes. Methods. A model of the cigarette market in 31 LAC countries was developed using cigarette tax, price, and retail sales data for 2014. It was then assumed that all countries increased the excise tax by 50% per pack. The model incorporated 12 studies from the LAC region that estimate the price elasticity of demand for cigarettes to quantify the expected impact of this tax increase on sales and tax revenues. Results. The tax increase would raise cigarette prices by an average of 28% across the region. The volume of cigarette sales would decrease by 7% (confidence interval (CI): 3-11). Cigarette tax revenue would increase by 32% (CI: 27-37), representing an extra US$ 7 050 million (CI: 5 984-8 086) in revenue. Almost all countries showed increases in tax revenue, even at outer edges of the sensitivity analysis. Conclusions. These findings confirm that the expected benefits of raising tobacco taxes are robust across the LAC region. Countries in the region should have confidence that raising tobacco tax rates will generate extra tax revenues.