Identifying the Driving Factors of Food Nitrogen Footprint in China, 2000-2018: Econometric Analysis of Provincial Spatial Panel Data by the STIRPAT Model

This paper studies the EKC hypothesis and STIRPAT model. Based on the panel data of carbon emission intensity and other influencing factors of 30 provinces in China from 2000 to 2018, the spatial effect of per capita food nitrogen footprint (FNF) and the effect of different socio-economic factors in China were studied by using exploratory spatial data analysis and fixed effect spatial Durbin model for the first time. The results show that: (1) there is a spatial agglomeration effect and a positive spatial dependence relationship in China's provincial per capita FNF (FNFP), which verifies that the relationship between China's FNF and economy is in the early stage of EKC hypothesis curve. (2) The driving forces of China's FNF were explored, including Engel's coefficient of urban households (ECU), population density (PDEN), urbanization, nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) and technology. (3) The results show that there is a significant spatial spillover effect of FNFP. The ECU and NUE can reduce the regional FNFP, and can slow down the FNFP of surrounding provinces. (4) Policy makers need to formulate food nitrogen emission reduction policies from the food demand side, food consumption side and regional level.